The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (2024)

Abstract

Instrumental observations1,2 and reconstructions3,4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past 150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5,6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Access through your institution

Change institution

Buy or subscribe

Subscribe to this journal

Receive 51 print issues and online access

185,98€ per year

only 3,65 € per issue

Learn more

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (1)
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (2)
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (3)
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (4)

Similar content being viewed by others

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (5)

Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Article Open access 26 October 2023

Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, … Pascal Yiou

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (6)

Climate warming amplified the 2020 record-breaking heatwave in the Antarctic Peninsula

Article Open access 27 May 2022

Sergi González-Herrero, David Barriopedro, … Marc Oliva

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (7)

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe

Article Open access 23 November 2023

Jitendra Singh, Sebastian Sippel & Erich M. Fischer

References

  1. Jones, P. D. & Moberg, A. Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001. J. Clim. 16, 206–223 (2003)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  2. Folland, C. K. et al. Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 2621–2624 (2001)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  3. Crowley, T. J. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science 289, 270–277 (2000)

    Article ADS CAS PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J. & Briffa, K. R. The evolution of climate over the last millennium. Science 292, 662–667 (2001)

    Article ADS CAS PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Easterling, D. R. et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81, 417–425 (2000)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  6. Frich, P. et al. Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim. Res. 19, 193–212 (2002)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  7. Folland, C. K. et al. in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) 99–182 (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2001)

    Google Scholar

  8. Aschwanden, A. et al. Bereinigte Zeitreihen: Die Ergebnisse des Projekts KLIMA90 (MeteoSwiss, Zürich, 1996)

    Google Scholar

  9. Bergert, M. et al. hom*ogenisierung von Klimamessreihen und Berechnung der Normwerte 1961–1990 Veröffentlichungen der MeteoSchweiz, 67, MeteoSwiss, Zürich, (2003)

    Google Scholar

  10. Allen, M. R. Liability for climate change. Nature 42, 891–892 (2003)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  11. Esper, J., Cook, E. R. & Schweingruber, F. H. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295, 2250–2253 (2002)

    Article ADS CAS PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Pfister, C. et al. Documentary evidence on climate in sixteenth-century Europe. Clim. Change 43, 55–110 (1999)

    Article Google Scholar

  13. Jacobeit, J., Wanner, H., Koslowski, G. & Gudd, M. European surface pressure patterns for months with outstanding climatic anomalies during the sixteenth century. Clim. Change 43, 201–221 (1999)

    Article Google Scholar

  14. Katz, R. W. & Brown, B. G. Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Clim. Change 21, 289–302 (1992)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  15. Wetherald, R. T. & Manabe, S. The mechanisms of summer dryness induced by greenhouse warming. J. Clim. 8, 3096–3108 (1995)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  16. Hartmann, D. L. Global Physical Climatology (Academic, San Diego, 1994)

    Google Scholar

  17. Enthekabi, D., Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. & Bras, R. L. Variability in large-scale water balance with land surface-atmosphere interaction. J. Clim. 5, 798–813 (1992)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  18. Schär, C., Lüthi, D., Beyerle, U. & Heise, E. The soil-precipitation feedback: A process study with a regional climate model. J. Clim. 12, 722–741 (1999)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  19. Rodwell, M. J. & Hoskins, B. J. Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons. J. Clim. 14, 3192–3211 (2001)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  20. Wild, M., Dümenil, L. & Schulz, J. P. Regional climate simulation with a high resolution GCM: surface hydrology. Clim. Dyn. 12, 755–774 (1996)

    Article Google Scholar

  21. Seneviratne, S. I., Pal, J. S., Eltahir, E. A. B. & Schär, C. Summer dryness in the US midwest: A process study with a regional climate model. Clim. Dyn. 20, 69–85 (2002)

    Article Google Scholar

  22. Christensen, J. H. & Christensen, O. B. Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 421, 805–806 (2002)

    Article ADS Google Scholar

  23. Simmons, A. J. & Gibson, J. K. The ERA-40 Project Plan ERA-40 (Project Report Series, No. 1, ECMWF, Reading, 2000)

    Google Scholar

  24. Nakicenovic, N. et al. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 2000)

    Google Scholar

  25. Johns, T. C. et al. Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Clim. Dyn. 20, 583–612 (2003)

    Article Google Scholar

  26. Collins, M., Tett, S. F. B. & Cooper, C. The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dyn. 17, 61–81 (2001)

    Article Google Scholar

  27. Pope, D. V., Gallani, M., Rowntree, R. & Stratton, A. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model HadAM3. Clim. Dyn. 16, 123–146 (2000)

    Article Google Scholar

  28. Jones, R. G., Murphy, J. M., Hassell, D. C. & Taylor, R. Ensemble Mean Changes in a Simulation of the European Climate of 2071–2100 Using the New Hadley Centre Regional Modelling system HadAM3H/HadRM3H (Hadley Centre Report, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, 2001); available at 〈http://prudence.dmi.dk〉 (2001)

    Google Scholar

  29. Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Seneviratne, S. & Schär, C. Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res. D 108 doi:101029/2002JD002810 (2003)

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the climatology and data teams of MeteoSwiss (Zürich, Switzerland) for providing access to their long-term hom*ogenized temperature series, the Hadley Centre (Exeter, UK) for providing access to their climate change simulations, and the PRUDENCE team for access to climate simulations. We also thank our colleagues for comments on the manuscript. The computations were performed on the computing facilities of ETH and the Swiss Center for Scientific Computing (CSCS). This research was supported by the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Union (project PRUDENCE), by the Swiss Ministry for Education and Research, and by the Swiss National Science Foundation (NCCR Climate).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057, Zürich, Switzerland

    Christoph Schär,Pier Luigi Vidale,Daniel Lüthi&Christoph Frei

  2. MeteoSwiss, Krähbühlstrasse 58, 8044, Zürich, Switzerland

    Christian Häberli,Mark A. Liniger&Christof Appenzeller

Authors

  1. Christoph Schär

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

  2. Pier Luigi Vidale

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

  3. Daniel Lüthi

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

  4. Christoph Frei

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

  5. Christian Häberli

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

  6. Mark A. Liniger

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

  7. Christof Appenzeller

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMedGoogle Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christoph Schär.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Schär, C., Vidale, P., Lüthi, D. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332–336 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves (2024)

FAQs

What is causing the heat wave in Europe? ›

The current extreme heat is due to an anticyclone, a high-pressure system, that is dominating the upper atmosphere over southern Europe. As well as compressing and warming air, high-pressure systems are associated with reduced cloud cover, allowing more solar radiation to reach the ground.

Why is climate variability important? ›

These variations can cause short-term warming or cooling trends in regional climate, if one or more of these conditions dominates over a period of time (e.g., several years to decades). For example, natural variability has generally favored cooler and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest over the last 15 years.

What is temperature variability? ›

Background. Short-term temperature variability, defined as the temperature range occurring within a short time span at a given location, appears to be increasing with climate change. Such variation in temperature may influence acute health outcomes, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVD).

What phenomenon causes Europe to experience warm weather patterns? ›

In this weather pattern, the jet stream, which is typically a narrow band of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere, splits into two branches with Europe in between. This phenomenon causes a “heat dome” effect in which European countries are trapped in a pattern of prolonged, extreme heat.

Why temperature is increasing in Europe? ›

The continent generated 43% of its electricity from renewable resources last year, up from 36% the year before, the agencies say in their European State of the Climate report for last year. More energy in Europe was generated from renewables than from fossil fuels for the second year running.

Why is Europe so hot in summer? ›

Ocean heatwaves can affect atmospheric circulation patterns and warm the air masses above them. Scientists say climate change, primarily triggered by greenhouse gas emissions mainly from burning fossil fuels, will result in more frequent, severe and dangerous heatwaves.

What causes temperature variability? ›

Geological records show that there have been a number of large variations in the Earth's climate. These have been caused by many natural factors, including changes in the sun, emissions from volcanoes, variations in Earth's orbit and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2).

Is temperature variability increasing? ›

While future globally averaged regional temperature variability decreases only slightly across the model average, the contrasting pattern of increasing variability over tropical land and decreasing variability in high latitudes is projected to become much more pronounced under strong global warming.

What are the effects of variation of temperature? ›

The main effect of ambient temperature variation on human systems is abnormalities in blood vessels and homeostatic mechanisms, which trigger a series of responses that may affect the cardiovascular system.

Is the sudden increase in temperature in Europe caused by climate change? ›

High temperatures

The climate crisis has increased the average global temperature and is leading to more frequent high-temperature extremes, such as heatwaves.

Which country is least affected by global warming? ›

The ND-GAIN's overall rankings state that the top 10 most climate-resilient countries in the world in 2023 are:
  • Norway.
  • Finland.
  • Switzerland.
  • Denmark.
  • Singapore.
  • Sweden.
  • Iceland.
  • New Zealand.
Aug 25, 2023

What is the hottest country in Europe? ›

The hottest places in Europe

The hottest place in Europe is Valletta in Malta, with an average daily temperature over the whole year of 22.3ºC. A holiday in Malta is a pretty safe bet almost any time. Athens is second with an annual average of 22ºC.

What is causing the massive heat wave? ›

They are caused by a combination of factors, such as high pressure systems, solar radiation, trapped gases, wind and ocean currents, and climate change.

What is really causing the heatwave? ›

The mechanism is simple: The burning of fossil fuels adds greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, which traps more heat energy and pushes up average temperatures — which, in turn, also pushes up extreme temperatures.

What is causing the global heat wave? ›

North America, Europe and China have experienced heatwaves increasingly frequently over the last years as a result of warming caused by human activities, hence the current heat waves are not rare in today's climate with an event like the currently expected approximately once every 15 years in the US/Mexico region, once ...

What is causing the heat wave in England? ›

Weather systems usually move from west to east - but sometimes they can get blocked when the jet stream weakens and brings prolonged periods of similar conditions. An omega block is responsible for the heatwave which is gripping parts of the UK.

References

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Rob Wisoky

Last Updated:

Views: 6328

Rating: 4.8 / 5 (68 voted)

Reviews: 91% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Rob Wisoky

Birthday: 1994-09-30

Address: 5789 Michel Vista, West Domenic, OR 80464-9452

Phone: +97313824072371

Job: Education Orchestrator

Hobby: Lockpicking, Crocheting, Baton twirling, Video gaming, Jogging, Whittling, Model building

Introduction: My name is Rob Wisoky, I am a smiling, helpful, encouraging, zealous, energetic, faithful, fantastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.