A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit (2024)

Ali, M., Prasad, R., Xiang, Y., and Yaseen, Z. M.: Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition hybridized with random forest and kernel ridge regression model for monthly rainfall forecasts, J. Hydrol., 584, 124647, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124647, 2020. 

Alley, W. M.: The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and Assumptions, J. Climate, 23, 1100–1109, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1100:TPDSIL>2.0.CO;2, 1984. 

Andreu-Hayles, L., Ummenhofer, C. C., Barriendos, M., Schleser, G. H., Helle, G., Leuenberger, M., Gutiérrez, E., and Cook, E. R.: 400 Years of summer hydroclimate from stable isotopes in Iberian trees, Clim. Dynam., 49, 143–161, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3332-z, 2017. 

Bair, E. H., Abreu Calfa, A., Rittger, K., and Dozier, J.: Using machine learning for real-time estimates of snow water equivalent in the watersheds of Afghanistan, The Cryosphere, 12, 1579–1594, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1579-2018, 2018. 

Bakke, S. J., Ionita, M., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Recent European drying and its link to prevailing large-scale atmospheric patterns, Sci. Rep., 13, 21921, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-48861-4, 2023. 

Balting, D. F., Ionita, M., Wegmann, M., Helle, G., Schleser, G. H., Rimbu, N., Freund, M. B., Heinrich, I., Caldarescu, D., and Lohmann, G.: Large-scale climate signals of a European oxygen isotope network from tree rings, Clim. Past, 17, 1005–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1005-2021, 2021. 

Balting, D. F., Michel, S. L. L., Nagavciuc, V., Helle, G., Freund, M., Schleser, G. H., Steger, D. N., Lohmann, G., and Ionita, M.: A past and present perspective on the European summer vapour pressure deficit, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5958836, 2022. 

Barbour, M. M.: Stable oxygen isotope composition of plant tissue: A review, Funct. Plant Biol., 34, 83–94, https://doi.org/10.1071/FP06228, 2007. 

Barbour, M. M., Roden, J. S., Farquhar, G. D., and Ehleringer, J. R.: Expressing leaf water and cellulose oxygen isotope ratios as enrichment above source water reveals evidence of a Péclet effect, Oecologia, 138, 426–435, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-003-1449-3, 2004. 

Barkhordarian, A., Saatchi, S. S., Behrangi, A., Loikith, P. C., and Mechoso, C. R.: A Recent Systematic Increase in Vapor Pressure Deficit over Tropical South America, Sci. Rep., 9, 15331, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-51857-8, 2019. 

Behrangi, A., Fetzer, E. J., and Granger, S. L.: Early detection of drought onset using near surface temperature and humidity observed from space, Int. J. Remote Sens., 37, 3911–3923, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2016.1204478, 2016. 

Belgiu, M. and Drăgu, L.: Random forest in remote sensing: A review of applications and future directions, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 114, 24–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2016.01.011, 2016. 

Boettger, T., Haupt, M., Konller, K., Weise, S. M., Waterhouse, J. S., Rinne, T., Loader, N. J., Sonninen, E., Jungner, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Stievenard, M., Guillemin, M.-T., Pierre, M., Pazdur, A., Leuenberger, M., Filot, M., Saurer, M., Reynolds, C. E., Helle, G., and Schleser, G. H.: Wood Cellulose Preparation Methods and Mass Spectrometric Analyses of δ13C, δ18O, and Nonexchangeable δ2H Values in Cellulose, Sugar, and Starch: An Interlaboratory Comparison, Anal. Chem., 79, 4603–4612, https://doi.org/10.1021/ac0700023, 2007. 

Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Trnka, M., Kotyza, O., Řezníčková, L., Valášek, H., Zahradníček, P., and Štěpánek, P.: Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD, Clim. Past, 9, 1985–2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1985-2013, 2013. 

Breiman, L.: Random Forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICCECE51280.2021.9342376, 2001. 

Brooks, C. E. P. and Glasspoole, J.: The drought of 1921 in the British Isles, Mon. Weather Rev., 50, 93–93, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1922)50<93a:tdoitb>2.0.co;2, 1922. 

Buckley, T. N.: How do stomata respond to water status?, New Phytol., 224, 21–36, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.15899, 2019. 

Casty, C., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., Esper, J., and Böhm, R.: Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 1855–1880, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1216, 2005. 

Churakova Sidorova, O. V., Corona, C., Fonti, M. V., Guillet, S., Saurer, M., Siegwolf, R. T. W., Stoffel, M., and Vaganov, E. A.: Recent atmospheric drying in Siberia is not unprecedented over the last 1,500years, Sci. Rep., 10, 15024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71656-w, 2020. 

Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, E. R., Williams, A. P., Anchukaitis, K. J., Mankin, J. S., Allen, K., Andreu-Hayles, L., Ault, T. R., Belmecheri, S., Coats, S., Coulthard, B., Fosu, B., Grierson, P., Griffin, D., Herrera, D. A., Ionita, M., Lehner, F., Leland, C., Marvel, K., Morales, M. S., Mishra, V., Ngoma, J., Nguyen, H. T. T., O'Donnell, A., Palmer, J., Rao, M. P., Rodriguez-Caton, M., Seager, R., Stahle, D. W., Stevenson, S., Thapa, U. K., Varuolo-Clarke, A. M., and Wise, E. K.: Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, 741–757, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1, 2022. 

Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Stahle, D. W.: North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences, Earth Sci. Rev., 81, 93–134, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.12.002, 2007. 

Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., Baillie, M., Baittinger, C., Bleicher, N., Bonde, N., Brown, D., Carrer, M., Cooper, R., Čufar, K., Dittmar, C., Esper, J., Griggs, C., Gunnarson, B., Günther, B., Gutierrez, E., Haneca, K., Helama, S., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U. U., Hofmann, J., Janda, P., Kontic, R., Köse, N., Kyncl, T., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H., Manning, S., Melvin, T. M., Miles, D., Neuwirth, B., Nicolussi, K., Nola, P., Panayotov, M., Popa, I., Rothe, A., Seftigen, K., Seim, A., Svarva, H., Svoboda, M., Thun, T., Timonen, M., Touchan, R., Trotsiuk, V., Trouet, V., Walder, F., Ważny, T., Wilson, R., and Zang, C.: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500561, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561, 2015. 

Craig, H.: Isotopic standards for carbon and oxygen and correction factors for mass-spectrometric analysis of carbon dioxide, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-7037(57)90024-8, 1957. 

Dai, A.: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 52–58, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1633, 2013. 

Davies, D. and Loader, N. J.: An evaluation of english oak earlywood vessel area as a climate proxy in the UK, Dendrochronologia, 64, 125777, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2020.125777, 2020. 

Delcroix, T., Michel, S. L. L., Swingedouw, D., Malaizé, B., Daniau, A.-L., Abarca-del-Rio, R., Caley, T., and Sémah, A.-M.: Clarifying the Role of ENSO on Easter Island Precipitation Changes: Potential Environmental Implications for the Last Millennium, Paleoceanoraphy and Paleoclimatology, 37, e2022PA004514, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004514, 2022. 

Etien, N., Daux, V., Masson-Delmotte, V., Stievenard, M., Bernard, V., Durost, S., Guillemin, M. T., Mestre, O., and Pierre, M.: A bi-proxy reconstruction of Fontainebleau (France) growing season temperature from A.D. 1596 to 2000, Clim. Past, 4, 91–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-4-91-2008, 2008. 

Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. 

Ferrio, J. P. and Voltas, J.: Carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in wood constituents of Pinus halepensis as indicators of precipitation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit, Tellus B, 57, 164–173, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2005.00137.x, 2005. 

Fletcher, A. L., Sinclair, T. R., and Allen, L. H.: Transpiration responses to vapor pressure deficit in well watered “slow-wilting” and commercial soybean, Environ. Exp. Bot., 61, 145–151, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envexpbot.2007.05.004, 2007. 

Freund, M. B., Henley, B. J., Karoly, D. J., McGregor, H. V., Abram, N. J., and Dommenget, D.: Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Niño events in recent decades relative to past centuries, Nat. Geosci., 12, 450–455, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0353-3, 2019. 

Freund, M. B., Helle, G., Balting, D. F., Ballis, N., Schleser, G. H., and Cubasch, U.: European tree-ring isotopes indicate unusual recent hydroclimate, Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00648-7, 2023. 

Fritts, H. C.: Tree Rings and Climate, Academic Press, London, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-268450-0.X5001-0, ISBN978-0-12-268450-0, 1976. 

Gagen, M., Battipaglia, G., Daux, V., Duffy, J., Dorado-Liñán, I., Hayles, L. A., Martínez-Sancho, E., McCarroll, D., Shestakova, T. A., and Treydte, K.: Climate Signals in Stable Isotope Tree-Ring Records BT – Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings: Inferring Physiological, Climatic and Environmental Responses, in: Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings. Tree Physiology, edited by: Siegwolf, R. T. W., Brooks, J. R., Roden, J., and Saurer, M., 537–579, Springer International Publishing, Cham, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92698-4_19, 2022. 

Glaser, R.: Klimageschichte Mitteleuropas: 1200 Jahre Wetter, Klima, Katastrophen, Primus Verlag, Darmstadt, ISBN9783896786043, 2008. 

González-González, B. D., Vázquez-Ruiz, R. A., and García-González, I.: Effects of climate on earlywood vessel formation of quercus robur and q. Pyrenaica at a site in the northwestern iberian peninsula, Can. J. Forest Res., 45, 698–709, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2014-0436, 2015. 

Good, S. P., Noone, D., and Bowen, G.: Hydrologic connectivity constrains partitioning of global terrestrial water fluxes, Science, 349, 6244, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5931, 2015. 

Grossiord, C., Buckley, T. N., Cernusak, L. A., Novick, K. A., Poulter, B., Siegwolf, R. T. W., Sperry, J. S., and McDowell, N. G.: Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit, New Phytol., 226, 1150–1566, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.16485, 2020. 

Hafner, P., McCarroll, D., Robertson, I., Loader, N. J., Gagen, M., Young, G. H. F., Bale, R. J., Sonninen, E., and Levanič, T.: A 520year record of summer sunshine for the eastern European Alps based on stable carbon isotopes in larch tree rings, Clim. Dynam., 43, 971–980, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1864-z, 2014. 

Haupt, M., Weigl, M., Grabner, M., and Boettger, T.: A 400-year reconstruction of July relative air humidity for the Vienna region (eastern Austria) based on carbon and oxygen stable isotope ratios in tree-ring latewood cellulose of oaks (Quercus petraea Matt. Liebl.), Climatic Change, 105, 243–262, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9862-1, 2011. 

Heinrich, I., Touchan, R., Dorado Liñán, I., Vos, H., and Helle, G.: Winter-to-spring temperature dynamics in Turkey derived from tree rings since AD 1125, Clim. Dynam., 41, 1685–1701, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1702-3, 2013. 

Helama, S., Läänelaid, A., Raisio, J., Mäkelä, H. M., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., and Sonninen, E.: Oak decline analyzed using intraannual radial growth indices, δ13C series and climate data from a rural hemiboreal landscape in southwesternmost Finland, Environ. Monit. Assess., 186, 4697–4708, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3731-8, 2014. 

Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. 

Hilasvuori, E., Berninger, F., Sonninen, E., Tuomenvirta, H., and Jungner, H.: Stability of climate signal in carbon and oxygen isotope records and ring width from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Finland, J. Quaternary Sci., 24, 469–480, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1260, 2009. 

Ionita, M., Lohmann, G., and Rimbu, N.: Prediction of spring Elbe discharge Based on stable teleconnections with winter global temperature and precipitation, J. Climate, 21, 6215–6226, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2248.1, 2008. 

Ionita, M., Boroneanṭ, C., and Chelcea, S.: Seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their connections with large scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2803–2829, 2015. 

Ionita, M., Dima, M., Nagavciuc, V., Scholz, P., and Lohmann, G.: Past megadroughts in central Europe were longer, more severe and less warm than modern droughts, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 61, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00130-w, 2021. 

Ionita, M., Nagavciuc, V., Scholz, P., and Dima, M.: Long-term drought intensification over Europe driven by the weakening trend of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 42, 101176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101176, 2022. 

IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Mayco*ck, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021a. 

IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Mayco*ck, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 3−-32, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001, 2021b. 

ISONET Project Members, Schleser, G. H., Andreu-Hayles, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Boettger, T., Dorado-Liñán, I., Esper, J., Grabner, M., Gutiérrez, E., Helle, G., Hilasvuori, E., Jugner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Krąpiec, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pawełczyk, S., Pazdur, A., Pukienė, R., Rinne-Garmston, K. T., Saracino, A., Saurer, M., Sonninen, E., Stiévenard, M., Switsur, V. R. Szychowska-Krąpiec, E. Szczepanek, M., Todaro, L., Treydte, K., Vitas, A., Waterhouse, J. S., Weigl-Kuska, M., and Wimmer, R.: Stable oxygen isotope ratios of tree-ring cellulose from the site network of the EU-Project “ISONET”, GFZ Data Services [data set], https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.3.2023.001, 2023. 

Iturbide, M., Gutiérrez, J. M., Alves, L. M., Bedia, J., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cimadevilla, E., Cofiño, A. S., Di Luca, A., Faria, S. H., Gorodetskaya, I. V., Hauser, M., Herrera, S., Hennessy, K., Hewitt, H. T., Jones, R. G., Krakovska, S., Manzanas, R., Martínez-Castro, D., Narisma, G. T., Nurhati, I. S., Pinto, I., Seneviratne, S. I., van den Hurk, B., and Vera, C. S.: An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2959–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020, 2020. 

Jones, M. D., Dee, S., Anderson, L., Baker, A., Bowen, G., and Noone, D. C.: Water isotope systematics: Improving our palaeoclimate interpretations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 131, 243–249, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.11.014, 2016. 

Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., Osborn, T. J., Lough, J. M., Van Ommen, T. D., Vinther, B. M., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E. R., Zwiers, F. W., Mann, M. E., Schmidt, G. A., Ammann, C. M., Buckley, B. M., Cobb, K. M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Küttel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J. T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A. W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., and Xoplaki, E.: High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: A review of current status and future prospects, Holocene, 19, 3–49, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683608098952, 2009. 

Josse, J. and Husson, F.: missMDA: A Package for Handling Missing Values in Multivariate Data Analysis, J. Stat. Softw., 70, 1–31, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v070.i01, 2016. 

Kahmen, A., Sachse, D., Arndt, S. K., Tu, K. P., Farrington, H., Vitousek, P. M., and Dawsona, T. E.: Cellulose δ18O is an index of leaf-to-air vapor pressure difference (VPD) in tropical plants, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 1981–1986, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1018906108, 2011. 

Kingston, D. G., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., and Hannah, D. M.: European-scale drought: Understanding connections between atmospheric circulation and meteorological drought indices, J. Climate, 28, 505–516, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00001.1, 2015. 

Labuhn, I., Daux, V., Pierre, M., Stievenard, M., Girardclos, O., Féron, A., Genty, D., and Masson-Delmotte, V., Mestre, O.: Tree age, site and climate controls on tree ring cellulose δ18O: A case study on oak trees from south-western France, Dendrochronologia, 32, 78–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2013.11.001, 2014. 

Labuhn, I., Daux, V., Girardclos, O., Stievenard, M., Pierre, M., and Masson-Delmotte, V.: French summer droughts since 1326 CE: a reconstruction based on tree ring cellulose δ18O, Clim. Past, 12, 1101–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1101-2016, 2016. 

Lawrence, M. G.: The relationship between relative humidity and the dewpoint temperature in moist air: A simple conversion and applications, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 225–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-2-225, 2005. 

Leonelli, G., Coppola, A., Salvatore, M. C., Baroni, C., Battipaglia, G., Gentilesca, T., Ripullone, F., Borghetti, M., Conte, E., Tognetti, R., Marchetti, M., Lombardi, F., Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Pelfini, M., Cherubini, P., Provenzale, A., and Maggi, V.: Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s, Clim. Past, 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1451-2017, 2017. 

Li, J., Wang, Z., Lai, C., and Zhang, Z.: Tree-ring-width based streamflow reconstruction based on the random forest algorithm for the source region of the Yangtze River, China, Catena, 183, 104216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.104216, 2019. 

Lindgren, A., Lu, Z., Zhang, Q., and Hugelius, G.: Reconstructing Past Global Vegetation With Random Forest Machine Learning, Sacrificing the Dynamic Response for Robust Results, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 13, e2020MS002200, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002200, 2021. 

Liu, X., Zhang, X., Zhao, L., Xu, G., Wang, L., Sun, W., Zhang, Q., Wang, W., Zeng, X., and Wu, G.: Tree ring δ18O reveals no long‐term change of atmospheric water demand since 1800 in the northern Great Hinggan Mountains, China, China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 6697–6712, 2017. 

Locosselli, G. M., Brienen, R. J. W., de Souza Martins, V. T., Gloor, E., Boom, A., de Camargo, E. P., Saldiva, P. H. N., and Buckeridge, M. S.: Intra-annual oxygen isotopes in the tree rings record precipitation extremes and water reservoir levels in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, Brazil, Sci. Total Environ., 743, 140798, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140798, 2020. 

Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M., and Wanner, H.: European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes since 1500, Science, 303, 1499–1503, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1093877, 2004. 

Marengo, J. A., Nobre, C. A., Tomasella, J., Oyama, M. D., de Oliveira, G. S., de Oliveira, R., Camargo, H., Alves, L. M., and Brown, I. F.: The drought of Amazonia in 2005, J. Climate, 21, 495–516, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1600.1, 2008. 

Marusek, J. A.: A Chronological Listing of Early Weather Events, breadandbutterscience, Report, http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf (last access: 16October2023), 580, 2010. 

Maxwell, A. E., Warner, T. A., and Fang, F.: Implementation of machine-learning classification in remote sensing: An applied review, Int. J. Remote Sens., 39, 2784–2817, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1433343, 2018. 

McCarroll, D. and Loader, N. J.: Stable isotopes in tree rings, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 23, 771–801, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2003.06.017, 2004. 

McCarthy, G. D., Haigh, I. D., Hirschi, J. J.-M., Grist, J. P., and Smeed, D. A.: Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations, Nature, 521, 508–510, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14491, 2015. 

Michel, S.: ClimIndRec 1.0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5716236, 2019. 

Michel, S., Swingedouw, D., Chavent, M., Ortega, P., Mignot, J., and Khodri, M.: Reconstructing climatic modes of variability from proxy records using ClimIndRec version 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020, 2020. 

Michel, S. L. L., Swingedouw, D., Ortega, P., Gastineau, G., Mignot, J., McCarthy, G., and Khodri, M.: Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction, Nat. Commun., 13, 5176, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32704-3, 2022. 

Mohr, C. H., Manga, M., Helle, G., Heinrich, I., Giese, L., and Korup, O.: Trees Talk Tremor Wood Anatomy and Content Reveal Contrasting Tree-Growth Responses to Earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 126, e2021JG006385, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006385, 2021. 

Nagavciuc, V., Ionita, M., Per?oiu, A., Popa, I., Loader, N. J., and McCarroll, D.: Stable oxygen isotopes in Romanian oak tree rings record summer droughts and associated large-scale circulation patterns over Europe, Clim. Dynam., 52, 6557–6568, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4530-7, 2019. 

Nagavciuc, V., Ionita, M., Kern, Z., McCarroll, D., and Popa, I.: A  700years perspective on the 21st century drying in the eastern part of Europe based on δ18O in tree ring cellulose, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 277, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00605-4, 2022. 

Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970. 

Novick, K. A., Ficklin, D. L., Stoy, P. C., Williams, C. A., Bohrer, G., Oishi, A. C., Papuga, S. A., Blanken, P. D., Noormets, A., Sulman, B. N., Scott, R. L., Wang, L., and Phillips, R. P.: The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 1023–1027, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3114, 2016. 

Ortega, P., Lehner, F., Swingedouw, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Raible, C. C., Casado, M., and Yiou, P.: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium, Nature, 523, 71–74, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518, 2015. 

Oshiro, T. M., Perez, P. S., and Baranauskas, J. A.: How Many Trees in a Random Forest?, in: Machine Learning and Data Mining in Pattern Recognition, edited by: Perner, P., MLDM 2012. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 7376, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31537-4_13, 2012 

Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: Five hundred years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 26, 387–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8, 2006. 

Prasad, R., Ali, M., Kwan, P., and Khan, H.: Designing a multi-stage multivariate empirical mode decomposition coupled with ant colony optimization and random forest model to forecast monthly solar radiation, Appl. Energ., 236, 778–792, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.12.034, 2019. 

Qu, Y., Zhu, Z., Chai, L., Liu, S., Montzka, C., Liu, J., Yang, X., Lu, Z., Jin, R., Li, X., Guo, Z., and Zheng, J.: Rebuilding a microwave soil moisture product using random forest adopting amsr-e/amsr2 brightness temperature and smap over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, Remote Sens., 11, 683, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11060683, 2019. 

Reichstein, M., Camps-Valls, G., Stevens, B., Jung, M., Denzler, J., Carvalhais, N., and Prabhat: Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science, Nature, 566, 195–204, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0912-1, 2019. 

Restaino, C. M., Peterson, D. L., and Littell, J.: Increased water deficit decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 9557–9562, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1602384113, 2016. 

Rinne, K. T., Loader, N. J., Switsur, V. R., and Waterhouse, J. S.: 400-year May–August precipitation reconstruction for Southern England using oxygen isotopes in tree rings, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 60, 13–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.10.048, 2013. 

Roden, J., Lin, G., and Ehleringer, J. R.: A mechanistic model for interpretation of hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios in tree-ring cellulose, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac,, 64, 21–35, 2000. 

Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F., Ghimire, B., Rogan, J., Chica-Olmo, M., and Rigol-Sanchez, J. P.: An assessment of the effectiveness of a random forest classifier for land-cover classification, ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens., 67, 93–104, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2011.11.002, 2012. 

Roibu, C. C., Palaghianu, C., Nagavciuc, V., Ionita, M., Sfecla, V., Mursa, A., Crivellaro, A., Stirbu, M. I., Cotos, M. G., Popa, A., Sfecla, I., and Popa, I.: The Response of Beech (fa*gus sylvatica L.) Populations to Climate in the Easternmost Sites of Its European Distribution, Plants, 11, 3310, https://doi.org/10.3390/plants11233310, 2022. 

Running, S. W.: Environmental control of leaf water conductance in conifers, Can. J. Forest Res., 6, 104–112, https://doi.org/10.1139/x76-013, 1976. 

Saurer, M., Borella, S., Schweingruber, F., and Siegwolf, R.: Stable carbon isotopes in tree rings of beech: Climatic versus site-related influences, Trees-Struct. Funct., 11, 291–297, https://doi.org/10.1007/s004680050087, 1997. 

Saurer, M., Cherubini, P., Reynolds-Henne, C. E., Treydte, K. S., Anderson, W. T., and Siegwolf, R. T. W.: An investigation of the common signal in tree ring stable isotope chronologies at temperate sites, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 113, G0403, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JG000689, 2008. 

Saurer, M., Kress, A., Leuenberger, M., Rinne, K. T., Treydte, K. S., and Siegwolf, R. T. W.: Influence of atmospheric circulation patterns on the oxygen isotope ratio of tree rings in the Alpine region, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D05118, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016861, 2012. 

Saurer, M., Spahni, R., Frank, D. C., Joos, F., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N. J., Mccarroll, D., Gagen, M., Poulter, B., Siegwolf, R. T. W., Andreu-Hayles, L., Boettger, T., Dorado Liñán, I., Fairchild, I. J., Friedrich, M., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Hilasvuori, E., Heinrich, I., Helle, G., Grudd, H., Jalkanen, R., Levanič, T., Linderholm, H. W., Robertson, I., Sonninen, E., Treydte, K., Waterhouse, J. S., Woodley, E. J., Wynn, P. M., and Young, G. H. F.: Spatial variability and temporal trends in water-use efficiency of European forests, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 3700–371, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12717, 2014. 

Schubert, S. D., Wang, H., Koster, R. D., Suarez, M. J., and Groisman, P. Y.: Northern Eurasian heat waves and droughts, J. Climate, 27, 3169–3207, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00360.1, 2014. 

Schulzweida U.: CDO User Guide, Climate Data Operator, Version 2.3.0, https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/cdo/embedded/cdo.pdf (last access: 16October2023), 2019. 

Seager, R., Hooks, A., Williams, A. P., Cook, B., Nakamura, J., and Henderson, N.: Climatology, variability, and trends in the U.S. Vapor pressure deficit, an important fire-related meteorological quantity, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 54, 1121–1141, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0321.1, 2015. 

Siegwolf, R. T. W., Brooks, J. R., Roden, J., and Saurer, M. (Eds.): Stable Isotopes in Tree Rings Inferring Physiological, Climatic and Environmental Responses, in: Tree Physiology, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-92698-4, ISBN978-3-030-92697-7, 2022. 

Simmons, A. J., Willett, K. M., Jones, P. D., Thorne, P. W., and Dee, D. P.: Low-frequency variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and precipitation: Inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D01110, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012442, 2010. 

Slivinski, L. C., Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Giese, B. S., McColl, C., Allan, R., Yin, X., Vose, R., Titchner, H., Kennedy, J., Spencer, L. J., Ashcroft, L., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Camuffo, D., Cornes, R., Cram, T. A., Crouthamel, R., Domínguez-Castro, F., Freeman, J. E., Gergis, J., Hawkins, E., Jones, P. D., Jourdain, S., Kaplan, A., Kubota, H., Blancq, F. Le, Lee, T. C., Lorrey, A., Luterbacher, J., Maugeri, M., Mock, C. J., Moore, G. W. W. K. K., Przybylak, R., Pudmenzky, C., Reason, C., Slonosky, V. C., Smith, C. A., Tinz, B., Trewin, B., Valente, M. A., Wang, X. L., Wilkinson, C., Wood, K., and Wyszyński, P.: Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: Improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 2876–2908, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598, 2019. 

Steiger, N. J., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, E. R., and Cook, B. I.: A reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common Era, Sci. Data, 5, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.86, 2018. 

Sternberg, L. and DeNiro, M. J.: Isotopic composition of cellulose from C3, C4, and CAM plants growing near one another, Science, 220, 947–949, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.220.4600.947, 1983. 

Treydte, K., Schleser, G. H., Esper, J., Andreu, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Böttger, T., D`Allessandro, C. D., Etien, N., Filot, M., Frank, D., Grabner, M., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Helle, G., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pazdur, A., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Reynolds, C., Rinne, K., Saurer, M., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Switsur, R., Szczepanek, M., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J., Weigl, M., and Wimmer, R.: Climate signals in the European isotope network ISONET, Tree rings Archaeol, Climatol. Ecol. TRACE, 5, 138–147, 2007a. 

Treydte, K., Frank, D., Esper, J., Andreu, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Boettger, T., D'Alessandro, C. M., Etien, N., Filot, M., Grabner, M., Guillemin, M. T., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Helle, G., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Krapiec, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pazdur, A., Pawelczyk, S., Pierre, M., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Reynolds-Henne, C. E., Rinne, K. T., Saracino, A., Saurer, M., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Switsur, V. R., Szczepanek, M., Szychowska-Krapiec, E., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J. S., Weigl, M., and Schleser, G. H.: Signal strength and climate calibration of a European tree-ring isotope network, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L24302, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031106, 2007b. 

Treydte, K., Liu, L., Padrón, R. S., Martínez-Sancho, E., Babst, F., Frank, D. C., Gessler, A., Kahmen, A., Poulter, B., Seneviratne, S. I., Stegehuis, A. I., Wilson, R., Andreu-Hayles, L., Bale, R., Bednarz, Z., Boettger, T., Berninger, F., Büntgen, U., Daux, V., Dorado-Liñán, I., Esper, J., Friedrich, M., Gagen, M., Grabner, M., Grudd, H., Gunnarsson, B. E., Gutiérrez, E., Hafner, P., Haupt, M., Hilasvuori, E., Heinrich, I., Helle, G., Jalkanen, R., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Kessler, A., Kirchhefer, A., Klesse, S., Krapiec, M., Levanič, T., Leuenberger, M., Linderholm, H. W., McCarroll, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pawelczyk, S., Pazdur, A., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Rinne-Garmston, K. T., Robertson, I., Saracino, A., Saurer, M., Schleser, G. H., Seftigen, K., Siegwolf, R. T. W., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Szychowska-Krapiec, E., Szymaszek, M., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J. S., Weigl-Kuska, M., Weigt, R. B., Wimmer, R., Woodley, E. J., Vitas, A., Young, G., and Loader, N. J.: Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400years, Nat. Geosci., 17, 58–65, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8, 2023. 

Trigo, R. M., Vaquero, J. M., Alcoforado, M. J., Barriendos, M., Taborda, J., García-Herrera, R., and Luterbacher, J.: Iberia in 1816, the year without a summer, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 99–115, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1693, 2009. 

Tyralis, H., Papacharalampous, G., and Langousis, A.: A brief review of random forests for water scientists and practitioners and their recent history in water resources, Water-Switzerland, 11, 910, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050910, 2019. 

Valler, V., Franke, J., Brugnara, Y., and Brönnimann, S.: An updated global atmospheric paleo-reanalysis covering the last 400years, Geosci. Data J., 9, 89–107, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.121, 2022. 

Vitas, A.: Tree-ring chronology of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) for Lithuania, Balt. For., 14, 110–115, https://www.dendrochronology-lt.com/publikacijos/2008-11.pdf (last access: 16October2023), 2008. 

Wang, J., Yang, B., Ljungqvist, F. C., Luterbacher, J., Osborn, T. J., Briffa, K. R., and Zorita, E.: Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years, Nat. Geosci., 10, 512–517, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2962, 2017. 

Willett, K. M., Dunn, R. J. H., Thorne, P. W., Bell, S., de Podesta, M., Parker, D. E., Jones, P. D., and Williams Jr., C. N.: HadISDH land surface multi-variable humidity and temperature record for climate monitoring, Clim. Past, 10, 1983–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, 2014. 

Williams, A. P., Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Swetnam, T. W., Rauscher, S. A., Seager, R., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., Dean, J. S., Cook, E. R., Gangodagamage, C., Cai, M., and Mcdowell, N. G.: Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 292–297, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693, 2013. 

WMO: Technical Regulations Basic Documents No. 2 Volume II – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, WMO-No. 49, 206, https://library.wmo.int/records/item/35795-technical-regulations-volume-ii-meteorological-service-for-international-air-navigation (last access: 16October2023), 2018. 

Yang, J., Jiang, L., Luojus, K., Pan, J., Lemmetyinen, J., Takala, M., and Wu, S.: Snow depth estimation and historical data reconstruction over China based on a random forest machine learning approach, The Cryosphere, 14, 1763–1778, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1763-2020, 2020. 

Yuan, W., Zheng, Y., Piao, S., Ciais, P., Lombardozzi, D., Wang, Y., Ryu, Y., Chen, G., Dong, W., Hu, Z., Jain, A. K., Jiang, C., Kato, E., Li, S., Lienert, S., Liu, S., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Qin, Z., Quine, T., Sitch, S., Smith, W. K., Wang, F., Wu, C., Xiao, Z., and Yang, S.: Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth, Sci. Adv., 5, eaax1396, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax1396, 2019.  

Zhan, Y., Luo, Y., Deng, X., Grieneisen, M. L., Zhang, M., and Di, B.: Spatiotemporal prediction of daily ambient ozone levels across China using random forest for human exposure assessment, Environ. Pollut., 233, 464–473, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2017.10.029, 2018. 

Zhang, Q., Ficklin, D. L., Manzoni, S., Wang, L., Way, D., Phillips, R. P., and Novick, K. A.: Response of ecosystem intrinsic water use efficiency and gross primary productivity to rising vapor pressure deficit, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 074023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2603, 2019. 

Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J. L., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Wang, T., Wu, D., Liu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhu, Z., and Asseng, S.: Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 9326–9331, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1701762114, 2017. 

A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit (2024)

References

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Rubie Ullrich

Last Updated:

Views: 6336

Rating: 4.1 / 5 (72 voted)

Reviews: 95% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Rubie Ullrich

Birthday: 1998-02-02

Address: 743 Stoltenberg Center, Genovevaville, NJ 59925-3119

Phone: +2202978377583

Job: Administration Engineer

Hobby: Surfing, Sailing, Listening to music, Web surfing, Kitesurfing, Geocaching, Backpacking

Introduction: My name is Rubie Ullrich, I am a enthusiastic, perfect, tender, vivacious, talented, famous, delightful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.