The Global Energy Perspective 2023 models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5°C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in sidebar “About the Global Energy Perspective 2023”). These wide-ranging scenarios sketch a range of outcomes based on varying underlying assumptions—for example, about the pace of technological progress and the level of policy enforcement. The scenarios are shaped by more than 400 drivers across sectors, technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and serve as a fact base to inform decision makers on the challenges to be overcome to enable the energy transition.
About the authors
This article is a collaborative effort by Pradhuman Aggarwal, Alessandro Agosta, Gillian Boccara, Dumitru Dediu, Berend Heringa, and Mateusz Luszczynski, representing views from McKinsey Energy Solutions.
Growing global momentum could accelerate the energy transition, as demonstrated by the UAE Consensus, released in December 2023, that calls on Parties to make a just and orderly transition away from fossil fuels. Analysis from multiple sources, including the IEA, IPCC, and McKinsey, suggests that conventional fossil fuels are likely to remain a part of the energy mix to 2050, even in a 1.5° scenario, and may act as a bridge for an orderly transition. Therefore, decarbonizing the fossil fuel system and substantially reducing emissions, including methane, is a key area of focus. Within that evolving context, this article examines the current state of the global natural gas market and the outlook for demand and supply, with a particular focus on liquefied natural gas (LNG). To view our oil outlook, please visit Global Energy Perspective 2023: Oil outlook.
Gas prices have fluctuated in recent years
In recent years, global gas prices have seen considerable fluctuations. The war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis led to an increase in global gas prices, which reached record highs in 2022. The reduction in Russian piped gas flows to Europe resulted in an increase in European LNG demand, which in turn led to increased competition for LNG cargoes between Asia and Europe. Prices have since stabilized both in Asia and in Europe, dropping below 2021 levels since May 2023 due to a mild winter, and, for Europe, a reduction in gas demand across sectors combined with high storage levels. The link between European and Asian gas markets through LNG is currently structural, with events in one market affecting pricing globally, although this could change in the future.
Simultaneously, 2022 was marked by several final investment decisions (FIDs) for LNG projects in North America and Qatar and sustained LNG contracting activity for pre-FID projects.
Global gas demand is projected to grow past 2030 in all scenarios
Natural gas has a wide range of applications across sectors, including power generation, heating, and high-temperature industrial processes, as well as being a feedstock in, for example, the petrochemical and fertilizer industry. It is expected to play a pivotal role in the energy transition by balancing renewables-based power generation until energy-storage technologies are deployed at scale.
Global gas demand is projected to grow past 2030 in all scenarios, with a total projected growth of between 10 and 15 percent. Even in faster decarbonization scenarios, growth is expected until 2030–40. After 2035, demand is projected to diverge significantly, with 2050 gas demand projected to grow by between 15 and 30 percent in the slower scenarios1Current Trajectory and Fading Momentum. but to decline by up to 20 percent in the faster scenarios.2Further Acceleration and Achieved Commitments.
Regionally, gas demand could vary significantly in different geographies due to differences in the uptake of technology, local policy, and geopolitical factors, among many others.
Demand growth is projected to be largely driven by the power sector
Across scenarios, the power sector is projected to continue driving the bulk of gas demand, accounting for around 40 to 50 percent of demand by 2050. This is largely due to the projected increase in power demand due to electrification in buildings and industry.
Chemicals and blue hydrogen production are the only sectors projected to show continuous growth in gas demand until 2050. In the buildings sector, electrification and biogas are expected to displace gas as more energy-efficient designs are applied. Finally, in industry (excluding chemicals), the electrification of heat and machinery is projected to ultimately result in a gradual decline in gas demand, mirroring the buildings sector.
There is a growing disconnect between gas supply and demand by geography
Overall, Asia is expected to account for the largest growth in gas demand, with North America accounting for some growth in the medium term, driven by coal-to-gas switching in Asia and increasing demand in the ASEAN, Chinese, and US power sectors. In Europe, gas demand is expected to steadily decline to 2050 in line with net-zero commitments.
In contrast, the Middle East, North America, and Russia are projected to remain the main sources of gas supply, accounting for around 70 to 80 percent of global supply across scenarios. As a result, traded gas in the form of LNG is expected to play a key role in bridging the gap between geographically disconnected supply and demand.
The share of LNG in the global gas supply is projected to increase
Across scenarios, LNG demand is projected to grow by between 1.5 and 3.0 percent CAGR from 2023 to 2035, mainly driven by demand growth in the ASEAN and South Asia regions. In contrast, Europe is projected to see a gradual decline in LNG imports in line with overall gas demand.
LNG supply growth is projected to come mostly from already-committed LNG projects in the Middle East and North America, which together could contribute more than 200 million tons1Metric tons: 1 metric ton=2,205 pounds. per annum (Mtpa)—between 45 and 70 percent of global LNG supply to 2050 across scenarios.
A demand-supply gap is projected to open in the global LNG market in the early 2030s
Across most scenarios, the global LNG market is projected to see a demand-supply gap open in the early 2030s, which is projected to last for at least the next decade. In the near term, the late 2020s may see a period of oversupply, although its scale and duration could be affected by LNG project delivery. In the longer-term, the sustained supply-demand gap will require additional LNG projects to be developed, and represents an opportunity for additional liquefaction capacity buildup.
Globally, more than 50 LNG projects are in contention to fill the supply-demand gap, which is projected to reach around 30 to 60 Mtpa from 2040 onwards. The gap will likely be filled by LNG projects with cost economics below $8–9/MMBTU,1Million British thermal units. largely from North America. Given how LNG demand trajectories are expected to develop to 2050, the 2030–40 window could be the last opportunity for new LNG projects to be developed.
Several uncertainties could impact the market
About the Global Energy Perspective 2023
Given its versatility, natural gas is projected to continue to play a key role in the energy mix irrespective of the pace of the energy transition, with demand projected to grow substantially in the short term. LNG as a delivery mechanism will assume an increasingly important role in linking geographically disconnected demand and supply centers.
However, our analysis of the scenarios shows that several key uncertainties remain around how the market could develop. These can be grouped broadly into four factors:
- Technology: The role of gas in the power sector may be challenged by the accelerated development of batteries in terms of costs and load capacity.
- Geopolitics: The potential for gas flows to Europe to increase could severely impact global LNG demand and push the market into oversupply.
- Regulatory: Increasing recognition of the life-cycle emissions associated with natural gas and LNG and decarbonization of emissions could affect gas supply and demand.
- Project delivery risk: Recent inflationary pressure has resulted in cost escalation for under-construction LNG projects, which could lead to delays in delivery.
It will be important to closely monitor these potential sources of uncertainty to keep abreast of key market developments.
To request access to the data and analytics related to our Natural gas outlook, or to speak to our team, please contact us.
Pradhuman Aggarwal is a consultant in McKinsey’s Houston office; Alessandro Agosta is a senior partner in the Milan office; Gillian Boccara is an associate partner in the London office, where Berend Heringa is a partner; Dumitru Dediu is a partner in the New York office; and Mateusz Luszczynski is a consultant in the Warsaw office.
Explore a career with us
Search Openings
