The AP Preseason Poll: A Gut-Wrenching, Data-Driven Gamble
The Associated Press (AP) Preseason Men's Basketball Top 25 ballot is a nerve-wracking affair, especially for a first-timer. It's a delicate dance between intuition and data, with the potential for embarrassment lurking around every ranking. But here's the catch: we're ranking teams with limited information, aiming to predict their strength today, not in the madness of March.
The challenge? Too many variables. Transfer portal dynamics, unknown contenders, and the ever-shifting landscape of college basketball make it a guessing game. Will Florida repeat its success? Can Houston reclaim its glory? Is this Purdue's year to shine in the Final Four?
The truth is, no one knows. Last year's predictions were largely off the mark. Only three teams from the preseason Top 10 maintained their position by year-end. The average ranking difference for teams in both polls was a staggering 7.5 spots. Florida, the eventual champions, started at a humble 21st.
The volatility doesn't end there. Kansas, UConn, Baylor, and North Carolina, all Top 10 preseason contenders, finished unranked. Meanwhile, the teams that ended the season at 7th to 11th were unranked to begin with.
Crafting my inaugural ballot was a blend of consensus, gut instinct, and data from Bart Torvik's esteemed ratings. I favored teams with more returning players, but the final responsibility for any blunders is mine alone.
My Top 25 Predictions:
- Houston: With three starters returning from a near-championship team, Houston has a strong chance to return to the Final Four. Their experienced core gives them an edge from the season's start.
- Purdue: Boasting a large returning roster and an elite coach, Purdue could be a top contender. Missing out on a Final Four season last year might just fuel their fire.
- Florida: The reigning champions, bolstered by Boogie Fland's decision and key transfers like Xavian Lee and Alex Condon, are a force to be reckoned with.
- UConn: With three returning starters, the addition of Silas Demary, and a renewed focus on defense, UConn is a team to watch.
- Duke: Despite no returning starters, Duke's returning players and talented freshmen, including the Boozer brothers, Sarr, and Wilkins, make them a formidable opponent.
- St. John's: Rick Pitino's sole returning starter, Zuby Ejiofor, is a standout. His portal additions and international players create a unique dynamic, even without a true point guard.
- Michigan: Dusty May's team, with two returning starters from the Sweet 16 and notable transfers, is poised for a strong season.
- BYU: Kevin Young's historic 26 wins last season could be surpassed with freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa leading the charge.
- Kentucky: Mark Pope's deep roster, including Otega Oweh and key transfers from national champion Florida, Alabama, and Pittsburgh, is a force to be reckoned with.
- Louisville: Pat Kelsey's team, despite injury woes, adds shooting prowess with transfers Wooley, McKneely, and Conwell, and top freshman Mikel Brown.
- UCLA: New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent is a game-changer for Mick Cronin's squad.
- Texas Tech: Grant McCasland's coaching prowess is undeniable, and JT Toppin's All-American talent solidifies their ranking.
- Alabama: A potential dark horse, especially with Nate Oats' focus on shooting.
- Arizona: Tommy Lloyd's team returns three starters and adds high-scoring freshman Brayden Burries.
- Arkansas: John Calipari's deep roster, experienced players, and top recruits make them a perennial contender.
- Iowa State: T.J. Otzelberger's team is known for its shooting and defense, with four returning starters from last season.
- Tennessee: Tennessee may rise above this ranking, but integrating new players like Ja'Kobi Gillespie might take time. Keep an eye on freshman Nate Ament.
- Illinois: With a unique starting lineup featuring four players whose last names end with 'c', Illinois is a team that stands out.
- Kansas: Bill Self's team, led by the nation's No. 2 recruit Darryn Peterson and former Louisville swingman Tre White, is a wildcard.
- Gonzaga: Mark Few's team, with experienced transfers like Grant-Foster and Ike, is a veteran-led squad.
- Auburn: Despite the Bruce Pearl departure, Auburn's roster and Tahaad Pettiford's talent make them a team to watch.
- Wisconsin: Greg Gard's high-scoring Badgers, led by Kamari McGee, are back with a bang.
- Creighton: Greg McDermott's team, with key returning players and high-scoring transfer Nik Graves, is a threat.
- Michigan State: A risky pick, but Tom Izzo's portal additions and freshmen could pay off.
- North Carolina: Hubert Davis needs a strong showing, and 6'10" freshman Caleb Wilson is key.
Quick Hits:
- Indiana's football team is on the rise, as evidenced by their recent upset win over Oregon. (Check out my column for more.)
- A busy Monday awaits with Jeff Brohm, Mark Stoops, and Jeff Walz addressing key matchups and the AP poll release at 2 p.m.
Final Thoughts:
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti reflects on his evolving leadership style, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the team's needs and focusing on coaching rather than leading from the front.
